Brave New World - Is the war on drugs collapsing?

As I read the papers in the UK and scan the news from across the world I can’t feeling that we have reached a tipping point in the prohibition of drugs. 14 US states (Colarado, Alaska, California, Hawaii, Maine, Maryland, Michigan, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon, Rhode Island, Vermont and Washington) allow the use of marijuana for medicinal purposes. In the UK the issue has been brought to a head by the sacking of Professor David Nutt (Hilariously look for #nuttsack)

The amazing thing about the war on drugs is that it is so young. Their are a large group of people who have total moral certainty about the criminalisation of drugs but would have not idea that prohibition as we know it is far younger than, say, the aeroplane. The current legislation was framed by two United Nations agreements in the 1950s with local legislation dating back to the 1920s. To me the US driven war on drugs has always smacked of the political opportunism of Nixon and Reagan.

The greatest story of how the legal use of now illegal drugs affected the world is of course how the British Empire was built on the opium trade. In 1839 the Chinese were exporting so much and importing so little that the balance of payments was threatening British hegemony. China would only hoard silver in return.

Without making too much of the historical parallel the fact is that we are having the biggest economic crisis in 80 years. Add to that tolerance and decriminalisation in Canada, Portugal and Holland and dozens of other countries. It may very well be that drug reform is gaining near universal acceptance.

The real pinch point in the drug wars will be the Americas. It is telling that it is America's two land neighbours, Canada and Mexico, are crunch points. Canada is a modern pragmatic western democracy that is rapidly becoming marijuana tolerant. Mexico has probably paid a higher price than anywhere else to try to prevent the trade in marijuana trade, and, in conjunction with places like the California, is considering "all the options".

Brazil must also be desperate to rid itself of the street crime, violence and corruption that is coming with its inner city drug wars. The Brazilians are an open minded and pragmatic nation who must be aware of the rice the slums in Buenos Aeries and Sao Paulo are paying for a policy of prohibition. It is interesting to note that Brazil's former colonial power, Portugal, has quietly decriminalised the usage of all drugs.

So will this happen before or after the 2016 Olympics? My prediction is after, when the nation has gained enough confidence to escape from the clutches of US policy. I am sure that they can manage the Olympics without violence and do not want to become a drug tourism Mecca.

There is another point here. Once the forces of legal drug usage gain acceptance then there is a growing commercial incentive for nations to develop their hemp industries and their might be a growing race to gain a commercial foothold.

ATH’s prediction? From 2019 it will be possible to get from the Bearing Straight to Montevideo buying Marijuana in shop fronts legally all the way. The Irony is that it is virtually possible anyway. At this point what will the point of billions of dollars of law enforcement resources being spent to stop international trafficking? It will just look even more ridiculous. The war on drugs may very well disappear as quickly as it appeared.